OECD handbook on anticipating and preparing for migration flows

Report · 18 March 2026

Devdiscourse, a news site, reports on a new OECD handbook titled Migration Anticipation and Preparedness: Making Migration Management Work, produced through the OECD's MAP Task Force. This item summarises that news report, not the handbook itself.

According to the report, the handbook says the aim is not perfect prediction but preparing for different scenarios, and that migration should not be treated as a single number. Asylum and irregular crossings are described as less predictable than labour, student and family migration, so each should be forecast separately.

The report says simple statistical approaches can give results similar to complex models, and that the best systems combine methods with expert input. It also mentions alternative data such as search trends and social media as early signals.

It identifies data quality and delays as a major challenge and calls for stronger data infrastructure and cooperation between migration agencies, statistical offices and policymakers. The report does not state an intended audience, though the topic is aimed at policymakers.

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